A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
